Reliance Trading Co. Limited – On Global Markets Last Week
As the outbreak of notorious corona-virus (CoVID19) that continues spreading all over the world, United State of America stocks drop down into a correction last week. Italy and Russia were among the global markets that are deeply affected, while China on the other hand has reported its biggest drop yet in its purchasing manager’s index – a headwind turn of events just this Saturday.
As investors hold on to the markets inevitability on the following weeks, an unverified news saying that Federal Reserve and the Central Banks are going to cut interest rates to sustain equity markets. An all-time low of earnings on the 10th and 30th year U.S. Government Bonds, the possibility of more rate cuts is more likely.
Preparing for the worsts future economic derangement, listed down are some or not the most economic events on the weeks ahead;
Monday (March 2, 2020)
– French Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– German Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– U.K. Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– U.S. Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
Tuesday (March 3, 2020)
– Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb)
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jan)
– Caixin Services PMI (Feb)
– U.K. Construction PMI (Feb)
– Japanese Services PMI (Feb)
Wednesday (March 4, 2020)
– German Services PMI (Feb)
– Federal Reserve Beige Book on Economic Conditions
– U.K. Services PMI (Feb)
– U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
– French Services PMI (Feb)
– Eurozone Services PMI (Feb)
– Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb)
– U.K. Composite PMI (Feb)
– Eurozone Retail Sales (Jan)
– Brazilian GDP (Q4)
– German Retail Sales (Jan)
– U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
– Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision
Thursday (March 5, 2020)
– U.S. Nonfarm Productivity (Q4)
– U.S. Factory Orders (Jan.)
– U.K. RICS House Price Balance
– OPEC Meeting
– Japanese Household Spending (Jan.)
Friday (March 6, 2020)
– U.K. Halifax House Price Index (Feb.)
– U.S. Trade Balance (Jan.)
– U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (Feb.)
– Canadian Employment Change (Feb.)
– Canadian Trade Balance (Jan.)
– U.S. Unemployment Rate (Feb.)
– Canadian Ivey PMI (Feb.)
– German Factory Orders (Jan.)
– OPEC Meeting Continues
Saturday (March 7, 2020)
– Chinese Trade Balance (Feb)
EuroPMI
Aside from China, the economy of Europe also relies on exports. German exports as a percent of GDP were a staggering 47%, as of 2018, data are recently available posted for the full year. The figure was 31% in France and 32% in Italy. Comparing the U.S. percentage is 12%, and China’s is 19.5%. Since we won’t get a hold of Eurozone trade balance numbers for February until April, we can start to have an idea by looking at purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI). As explained last week, the PMI is an index created based on the answers managers give to questions as to business conditions. As questions include new orders, inventories, and other measures that indicate the briskness of trade, it will be important to watch as the Eurozone releases manufacturing PMIs on Monday
China Trade Balance
Measuring the difference in value between imported and exported goods and so with the services rendered on the duration is called Trade Balance. If a positive number is indexed meaning that more goods and services are exported rather than imported.
Bullish/positive stance for CNY if the reading is higher than expected, while it’ll be bearish/negative if the reading is lower than expected.
The PMI (purchasing managers’ index) official statistic lowered to 39.16B last February 6, 2020. Slipping down against 46.79B statistic of January 13, 2020. The event happen just before the corona-virus outbreak.
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